Economic and policy risk were at least temporarily relegated to secondary status as geopolitical risk emanating from the war between Israel and Iran took centrestage. We expect financial markets to be in ‘risk off’ mode until clarity emerges about the extent and duration of damage caused by the conflict. Oil prices, in particular, are in […]
Last week, the S&P 500 crossed 6,000 marking a bull market in a drama filled week which included a public spat between Donald Trump and Elon Musk and the first direct talks between the US president and the Xi Jinping since Liberation day.
Trump’s tariff strategy faces an unexpected speed bump, his “big, beautiful bill” awaits Senate approval and as the 90-day tariff pause deadlines comes closer, the Trump administration has started to get frantic with aggressive statements on China & Europe.
Last week started off with a détente in the US-China trade war sending global stocks soaring and US indices paring 2025 losses. Soft US data continued to disappoint, but hard data remains resilient. On Friday, US credit rating was downgraded by Moody’s to Aa1. History suggests that the effect, if any, will be short-lived.
Markets had a relatively calm week. The tone was somewhat optimistic as the Fed acted in line with expectations and there were indications of progress on trade negotiations. The UK was first off the block on May 8th, and was followed yesterday by the all-important agreement with China to keep tariffs at 30% for the […]
Wall Street saw their longest winning streak since 2004 on the back of a few factors, all having one common factor, Donald Trump. The cherry on top of the cake came in the form of stronger than expected guidance from the big Tech firms. Oil, on the other hand, saw a big drawdown after OPEC […]
U.S. stocks drifted lower in a holiday-shortened week amid trade tensions, further investigations into pharma and semiconductor imports, mixed corporate earnings, and Trump’s public criticism of the Fed Chair. Global markets responded variably, with Chinese and Indian equities seeing gains on stimulus hopes and positive economic signals, while European financial stocks rose after regulatory changes by […]
As we expected, Trump announced a 90-day pause on most reciprocal tariffs excluding China, which caused the S&P 500 to jump almost 10% in a single day. However, uncertainty around tariffs remains, and fears of a trade war with China. Unless supported by positive news, markets are likely to drift lower. Unexpectedly, US treasuries saw […]
US markets remain under pressure due to uncertainty around Trump’s actions and its effects on the economy. Investors look forward to “Liberation Day” when US announces its overall strategy on trade and tariffs. Europe and China have a much better run, but face their own risks and challenges. We continue to advise a nimble approach […]
The trade war continues to escalate and pressure markets with US indices continuing losses into the 4th week with some respite seen on Friday due to a US government shutdown being averted. US released February inflation data that calmed some nerves and the yellow metal touched the $3,000 level for the first time.
